Y! Fantasy NRL Team: Round 3

Round 2 Score = 60
Total = 104
Ranking = 155 of 1,222 +135 (still 2nd in my league and 4th in Panthers League)

Round 2 Changes: Trades

Pritchard Out <-> Guerra In

Jennings Out <-> B. Morris In

Pritchard is injured, Jennings has underperformed. Guerra has 3 tries and Brett Morris had a hat trick just last week. Both are in undefeated teams.

Starting XIIV

Hinchcliffe will make room for Cronk so he will have limited time on the field swapping for Burgess, Bunnies should win. Joel Thompson continues to score tries playing in the centres so have put him in for Ellis. Brett Morris in for traded Jennings. Same 4 outside backs as reserves.

Folau Captain, Carney Kicker. Slater may be injured, would replace with Pearce who scored another two tries sitting on my bench!

Betting Odds: To Win the Premiership

*** Have removed betfair prices
***First row is last weeks prices

Betting Odds: To Win the Premiership (updated)

*** Have added Centrebet pricing to the list.

Big Shakers & Movers
As expected the two teams with upset wins from the weekend have had their odds tightened in. The Roosters and Knights have seen up to $10 off their opening prices cut off. The Tigers impressive comeback win has shaved another couple dollars off all markets as they continue to be the most roped in team since the option opened also shortening were Panthers.
Manly's inability to hold on to their lead and then lose their star fullback has seen their odds pushed close to double digits (not enough if you ask me). Talk of the off season, the Bunnies, didn't live up to expectations but despite being crushed on the field their price off it wasn't dented too much, only around $3.
Wooden spoon favourites the Sharks and Raiders both drifted out another $10 in a couple of agencies and a whopping $26-$27 on Sports Tab. Can see why this happened with Canberra who are without a hand full of potential starters, but the Sharks gave a determined effort against last years premiers and are close if not to full strength, keep an eye on for top 8.

Rock Steady
None of the Queensland teams have made a splash on any of the markets so it will be interesting to see what/if anything happens with them next week. The big four remained untouched, Dragons swapping with the Dogs as third favourites which should still be the case after their match tonight pushing the Dogs out further. The Warriors were exciting and challenged a team with an impeccable home record right down to the finish line and for doing so on a hole the bookies haven't been too cruel to them.

Last Weeks tips
Hope you got on Penrith last week because if the can beat the Cowboys expect them to drop significantly as they will be back home next week to the Storm then have games against the Knights and Roosters. If they are to lose, best move would be to hold off until after the Storm game, looks like they may have lost some depth this week if reports that Sammit is heading over the pond.
Forget about my Manly predictions, throw them out the door they're goooone its a travesty they are still mid priced in betting right now. Hold off on the Cowboys too as they have Dragons, Titans and Tigers upcoming.
The Broncos have what is relatively an easy draw ahead of them with games against the Warriors, Sharks and Raiders so the bookies have been quite fair to them, best bet of the round. If they can repeat last weeks first half performance for three quarters of the game in Canberra that should be enough to stay undefeated after two rounds. Knights top 8 prices last week look attractive now that DeGois is already back, but I feel the Title would be pushing it.
Everyone was scratching their heads over the Dogs last weekend, wait till Ennis is back after the Dragons as they have meetings with the other Sydney clubs and the Warriors which are all winnable *if* they can wake up and hold onto Ben Hannant. The Tigers are far too short at the moment as their first half showed they can be beat up down the middle and failed to score points after dominating most of the first half, a better side would have put them to sleep.

Y! 7 Fantasy NRL Team: Round 2

Round 1 Score = 44 Points

Ranking = 290 of 1,131 (2nd in my league of 16)

***update after Tigers Eagles game

Both subs I had in the last match of the round scored tries believe it or not. If I started both instead of Mateo & Pritchard I would have had 10 pts added = 54 pts which is 94 placed. Oh well.

Round 2 Changes

Trades:

Ennis Out <-> Hinchliffe In

Ennis was a naughty boy last week and has copped a week suspension. He also cost me any points for goals too. Hinchliffe is a good pick up as he darts out of dummy half a lot and is on a winning team.

Quinn Out <-> Tuquri In

Looks like I picked the wrong Storm winger. Tuquri showed he can still play and grabbed a try. With other winger Ryan in the crowd hopefully the Tigers run their attack down Tuquris side.

Starting XIIV

Hinchliffe replaces Ennis, Ellis comes in for Pritchard. Believe Tigers have more points in them than the Panthers and Tigers are a better choice to win their game in the weekend.

Mateo and Scott keep their places as their teams should win.

Tuquri replaces Quinn, Slater new captain for K. Gordan, Reserves same 4 outside backs as last week. Folau may be injured, if so one of them will replace him and Burgess would become a Reserve.

Cam Smith new Kicker for Ennis, only other Kicker on team now is Todd Carney.

Team Consists of: 4 Storm, 3 Roosters, 2 Dragons, Eels, Panthers, Warriors, Tigers.

And a Cowboy, Titan, Bronco, Rabbit, Raider, Eagle. Shark and a Dog.

No Knights.

How I think my players will go?

Todd Carney showed he can create tries for others so it would only be right for others to hand him one right? He should go in as a favourite to score a try even though defense's will know now to target him.

Both Jennings and K. Gordan were M.I.A last week in that they were on the field but no one knew where they were? Expect that to change this weekend, especially in the case of Gordan as he saved a couple of tries which the Titans would be thankful for and would want to repay him with a couple of 4 pointers. Not sure if the Morris boys are matched up, but if they are that means Scott will be marking Idris which bodes well as Dragons halves will want to target him and Scott could be a beneficially.

The Eels will be wanting to save face to their fans and against a depleted Eagles team both Hayne and Mateo should have their way.

Am I crazy still keeping Pearce on the bench after scoring two tries? might be, but I'm gonna give Hohaia another go because he will have time at dummy half as McKinnon is listed on the bench.

My 2010 Y!7 Fantasy Team Round 1 Review

Join my League today! LEAGUE CODE - 986715
My Team http://twitpic.com/180l3h

With 7 of the 8 games finished and none of my 17 in tomorrow nights match, lets see how I went in Round 1.

Player in Team that won: 10 of 17 = 20pts
Tries: Vatuvei 2, S. Turner 2, Folau = 20pts
Captain (K. Gordon) 0 Tries, Team won = +2pts
Kicker (M. Ennis) 0/4
Sin Bins: 0 that I know of?

Score for Round 1 = 40

My Subs not used.
Player in Team that won: 3 of 6 (1 Tiger, 1 Eagle yet to play) so 4 of 8
Tries: Pierce 2 (ouch!), J. Thompson = 12pts *Ellis, G. Stewart yet to play*
Goals: T. Carney 5/6 =12pts (ouch, ouch!) C. Smith 3/3 = 6pts
Sin Bin: Barret -5pts (phew!)

Review and upcoming changes for Round 2.
Kicker Ennis hurt me, but he had 4 opportunities (so good choice, plus not sure if Carney was top choice kicker for Roosters). Dogs play Dragons next week, defense orientated game going to replace Ennis (maybe on report too). Roosters playing Titans should be high scoring but may go with Cam Smith as kicker against a injury ravaged Knights team.

Captain Gordon like Jennings didn't get their chances but still double points for the Titans win (not all bad). Will replace Gordon for Folau (maybe injured?) as Broncos are playing Raiders who let in six tries to the Panthers, and should get double points for the win anyway. Wanted Jennings but hes playing in the heat in Townsville and Slater was another option but already have teammate Smith as kicker and it may hurt if Storm again fail to put points on the board (double blow).

Changes for Round 2, no injuries in my 25, so far.
Broncos and Storm are the sure bets so to use players from those teams.
Front row: to flip a coin with Mason, Burgess and Blair to partner Ennis and Cam Smith.
Second Row: Too hard to drop one but missed out with J.Thompson this week.
Halves: Another dilema, Carney was unlucky not to touchdown, Hohaia is good here but Pearce's double today makes this my hardest decision of the week.
Outside Backs and Fullbacks: All 9 are try scoring threats so keeping same 5 starters and the other 4 as reserves.

Possible Trades
Don't have players from Knights, Raiders or Rabbitohs.
Backs: Quinn and Barret perhaps for bolter like Norman, but not likely.
Forwards: Feel they are fine, maybe Blair or Myles if I can find a bargin.

My 2010 Y!7 Fantasy Team Roster and Sleepers

Join MY League "Hitmen" LEAGUE CODE - 910871

Decided to stick with this team, here's the breakdown.

4 Storm

3 Roosters

2 Dragons, Dogs, Eels, Panthers, Warriors

1 Cowboy, Titan, Bronco, Rabbit, Raider, Eagle, Tiger, Shark

-May drop a Storm and defiantly a Rooster for a player(s) from Rabbit, Tiger or Queensland team.

Goal Kickers

Ennis, C.Smith using Ennis Round 1 Dogs at home, should be more points scored in knights game.

Captain

Gordan, Warriors will find it tough, Prince to find his wingers off the boot. Titans are a shoe-in so double win points regardless.

Fullbacks

Have picked 5 playing in the 1 Jersey this week.

Outside Backs

Vatuvei to have his way with either little Titan winger,

Halves

Have found what should be good buys with both Hohaia and Carney who are playing fullback this week but on perhaps losing teams.

Backrowers

Another good bye with Beau Scott who's playing actually playing in the centres. May bring in Joel Thompson who is also listed as a centre for the Raiders this weekend.

Injuries

With Cooper out, there was talk prop Prior would move to center however that is not to be the case. Beau Scott is a better option as both are priced the same in the second row market.

Wade Mckinnon out, who was to push Hohaia to hook when he came on. Now Hohaia should play a full game at fullback, good news.

Folau should be the Broncos halves biggest asset with injuries to Yowyeh and Hodges perhaps make captain.

Fantasy Team: Yahoo! 7 Sport 10 Fantasy Team

Join MY League "Hitmen" LEAGUE CODE - 910871

Summary:
Pick 25 Players from 4.2 million salary cap = Avg player $168K
Pick 13 Starters 4 Reserves that all score full points leaving 10 Subs.
2 Fullbacks 7 Wing/Centres 2 Five Eights 2 Halfbacks 6 Frontrowers 6 Backrowers
Pick 1 Captain to score double points (not for penalties or conversions)
Pick 1 Kicker to score points for penalty goals or conversions (not drop goals)
*you can use the same player for captain and kicker but won't get double points for penalty goals or conversions.
Until the start of Round 1 you have unlimited changes.
After Round 1 you have 30 avaliable trades in the season but only 2 are to be used during each Round.
(Yahoo! has locked in all players at their perfered positions and won't change)

Point Scoring:

Try 4 pts, Goal 2 pts, FG 1 pt
Sinbin -5 pt, send off -10
Player on team wins 2 pt, draw 1 pt
-If none of your selected 17 score a point, Y! takes your lowest scorer of your 10 subs as one off auto emergency

League Play:

Head to Head does not start till Rnd 4 - 22, then top 8 and bottom 8 of each League play elimination tournament through rounds 23-26.
Rounds 1-3 individual points will be scored
The rest of the season during H2H, which includes 4 byes, winning teams get 2 points or a point each for a draw.

Extras:
If a new player not listed becomes the next superstar you can contact Y!7 to add them.
Player values/salaries won't change until they have played 3 games, then weekly depending on their performances.
Scores will be updated a few hours after the last game of the round or by 3.30pm Aus the following day.
No points will be awarded during byes and rep games.

Hints:
Y!7 will update their Market Watch weekly which consists top 20 popular, improving and slumping players.
You can put any player on "watchlist" to keep an eye on future pick ups.
Becareful of players that are known to be sin bin offenders, it can be very costly especially if you have made them captain.
Make sure you look at match ups, if one team looks to be a sure shot have a few of their players in your 17.
Pick up players that can play a couple of different positions incase of injuries.
Don't have too many players from one NRL team in your 17, if they loose you risk 2 points for each and their not all likely to score a try.
Always check your 17 are playing that week, check updated Injury Wards, and team lists etc.

Betting Odds: To Win the Premiership

There is actually decent money around this years favourites, in prior years bookies had them around $3-$5 but this year it is wide open. Outside them the early value outsider picks would be Penrith who barring injuries like in 2003 title run should have them positioned in the top 6. Manly and Gold Coast both have quality packs and dangerous weapons in their backlines, I can't see either drifting out from what they are now. Best buy would be the Cowboys at around 20-1, home heat factor and a pack as big as Souths but bolstered with rep players.

Hold out till the baby Broncs settle before backing them would be the best option for now, at least till after origin season. The Knights may look attractive as long outsides now, but they should continue to balloon out till Gidley and even DeGois return. A top 8 for them however is not out of the question at all.

The Dogs play 7 of 9 games at ANZ to start the season, so they should be in a good spot early - perhaps take them now. The Rabbits and Tigers are both unpredictable and inexperienced in finals footy, maybe the title is just out of reach for both this year.

Opening Round in NRL past three years [History Lesson]

1. Home teams don't lose in Round 1.
If you take away the annual Rabbits-Roosters game, which in a way is a home game for both teams and the home game the Titans lost in 2007, which was actually played at Suncorp only 2 home teams have lost. In 2006 Away teams were 5 of 7.

2. Only the Storm (since 2002) and Sharks (last 4) have won their last 3 Round 1 games.
However both play each other therefore this is irrelevant but the previous 4 Premiers have alternated round one results win, loss, win, loss...whereas Ricky Stuart has never lost in the first round during his coaching tenure.

3. Only the Panthers (one Round 1 win in a decade) and the Raiders have lost their previous opening clashes the past 3 years.
However both play each other therefore this is irrelevant (Groundhog day) but this is the first time the Panthers have hosted a Round 1 fixture since 2004 (come on NRL).

4. Close games, victors normally win by 14 or under.
From '07 to '09, 5 of the 8 round one games in each season were won by less than 14 points and a third of them were by 2 points or less.