Thursday, March 18, 2010

Betting Odds: To Win the Premiership (updated)

*** Have added Centrebet pricing to the list.

Big Shakers & Movers
As expected the two teams with upset wins from the weekend have had their odds tightened in. The Roosters and Knights have seen up to $10 off their opening prices cut off. The Tigers impressive comeback win has shaved another couple dollars off all markets as they continue to be the most roped in team since the option opened also shortening were Panthers.
Manly's inability to hold on to their lead and then lose their star fullback has seen their odds pushed close to double digits (not enough if you ask me). Talk of the off season, the Bunnies, didn't live up to expectations but despite being crushed on the field their price off it wasn't dented too much, only around $3.
Wooden spoon favourites the Sharks and Raiders both drifted out another $10 in a couple of agencies and a whopping $26-$27 on Sports Tab. Can see why this happened with Canberra who are without a hand full of potential starters, but the Sharks gave a determined effort against last years premiers and are close if not to full strength, keep an eye on for top 8.

Rock Steady
None of the Queensland teams have made a splash on any of the markets so it will be interesting to see what/if anything happens with them next week. The big four remained untouched, Dragons swapping with the Dogs as third favourites which should still be the case after their match tonight pushing the Dogs out further. The Warriors were exciting and challenged a team with an impeccable home record right down to the finish line and for doing so on a hole the bookies haven't been too cruel to them.

Last Weeks tips
Hope you got on Penrith last week because if the can beat the Cowboys expect them to drop significantly as they will be back home next week to the Storm then have games against the Knights and Roosters. If they are to lose, best move would be to hold off until after the Storm game, looks like they may have lost some depth this week if reports that Sammit is heading over the pond.
Forget about my Manly predictions, throw them out the door they're goooone its a travesty they are still mid priced in betting right now. Hold off on the Cowboys too as they have Dragons, Titans and Tigers upcoming.
The Broncos have what is relatively an easy draw ahead of them with games against the Warriors, Sharks and Raiders so the bookies have been quite fair to them, best bet of the round. If they can repeat last weeks first half performance for three quarters of the game in Canberra that should be enough to stay undefeated after two rounds. Knights top 8 prices last week look attractive now that DeGois is already back, but I feel the Title would be pushing it.
Everyone was scratching their heads over the Dogs last weekend, wait till Ennis is back after the Dragons as they have meetings with the other Sydney clubs and the Warriors which are all winnable *if* they can wake up and hold onto Ben Hannant. The Tigers are far too short at the moment as their first half showed they can be beat up down the middle and failed to score points after dominating most of the first half, a better side would have put them to sleep.

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